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Ask the Rational Investor Question: "The Market Keeps Going- What Can Get in its Way?"

By: Beese Fulmer Team
Sunday, April 1, 2018

Deflategate, Brian Williams’ slightly exaggerated war stories, OSU’s victory in the first college football playoff, David Letterman’s last appearance as host of Late Show; these are a small sampling of popular events gracing the headlines around the same time we had our last down quarter in the stock market. That is right; we have not been in this position since 2015. It is easy to become accustomed to extended periods of rising stock prices with low volatility, so it can be helpful to take a step back and put things into context. Just like today, there was a broad spectrum of fears weighing on investors’ minds back in 2015. These ranged from slowing growth in China to the tightening of Fed policy. Also like today, there were a lot of “IFs” in the seemingly-grim outlooks put forth by prominent Wall Street analysts. What IF China’s economy is slowing? What IF elections in major European countries go the wrong way? What IF the Fed tightens monetary policy too fast? Many lost sights of the broader improvement in economic conditions that would ultimately overcome all of these fears. Sometimes we get so caught up in trying to predict the future; we forget to take stock of what’s happening right now at the ground level. 

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