Beese Fulmer’s Fall Symposium: Looking Beyond Economic Headlines

When interest rates or inflation shift unexpectedly, markets can react quickly. But that doesn’t mean you have to.

At our annual Economic and Stock Market Symposium in September, Beese Fulmer’s investment team explained why it’s important to look behind the headlines before reacting. They shared their rational assessment of recent market developments, examining the data and what it may mean for investors. Here are five key insights from this year’s symposium.

1. Stock Valuations Have Eased, but Remain High

After reaching higher levels in recent years, the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio had declined to 19.1 as of Sept. 11, 2026. That made valuations more reasonable than they had been at recent peaks. The ratio was still above its 30-year average of 17.2, however.

A forward P/E ratio shows how much investors are paying for stocks relative to the earnings those companies are expected to generate. It helps put valuations in perspective, but it does not predict where stock prices will go next. The earnings outlook and the returns from other investments also influence how attractive those valuations may be.

Key takeaway: Lower valuations can improve the investment picture, but “less expensive than before” does not necessarily mean inexpensive.

2. Higher Treasury Yields Have Changed the Comparison

Investors also have more to weigh when comparing stocks with bonds. The symposium presentation showed that U.S. Treasury yields had risen across the yield curve since the end of 2025. For example, the 10-year Treasury yield was about 5% on Sept. 11, 2026, compared with roughly 4.2% at the end of 2025.

When yields rise, bonds may offer a more compelling alternative to stocks for some investors. Higher yields can also put pressure on stock valuations as investors reconsider how much they are willing to pay for future earnings. The appropriate balance still depends on an investor’s goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk.

Key takeaway: Consider a stock’s valuation alongside the returns and risks of other available investments.

3. The Inflation Headline Does Not Tell the Whole Story

Inflation is often summarized in a single number, but prices for goods and services don’t all rise or fall at the same rate. In August 2026, the headline Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% from a year earlier, while the measure excluding food and energy rose 2.4%. Energy prices contributed to the difference.

Both numbers are useful. Headline inflation reflects a broad range of goods and services consumers buy. The measure excluding food and energy can help show underlying price trends without some of the sharper swings in those categories. Looking at the components helps explain why the two readings differ.

Key takeaway: Before reacting to an inflation report, look at what drove the number and whether those pressures appear likely to persist.

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4. AI’s Potential Effect on Productivity Deserves Attention

We also examined AI's rapid evolution and how it will affect the workforce. The data showed that newer AI systems can successfully complete tasks that would take people increasingly longer to perform.

That progress raises important questions about how businesses may use these tools and whether their adoption will improve labor productivity over time. The chart measures AI capability, however, rather than economy-wide productivity gains. Businesses still must determine where the tools work reliably and how to integrate them into day-to-day operations.

Key takeaway: AI may influence long-term economic and business performance, but its investment implications require continued evaluation as real-world results emerge.

Looking Beyond the Headlines

These topics are connected. Higher bond yields can affect how investors value stocks. Inflation can influence interest rate expectations. Technological advances may eventually change the outlook for productivity and company earnings.

That is why our team examines new developments in the context of the broader market and each client’s long-term goals. The symposium gives us an opportunity to share that thinking with clients, discuss the questions behind the data, and continue the conversation as conditions change.

Want to discuss what today’s investment landscape means for your financial strategy? Start a conversation with Beese Fulmer.